Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Do not scapegoat the stock market decline

 RMB against the U.S. dollar in recent days falling, so the number of because the appreciation of the renminbi has never been the root cause of China's stock market rose, but was a reason for everyone to see it more, you not seen the appreciation of the RMB has now become a reason to look empty? as RMB appreciation led to difficulties in the export business, coupled with rising wages and financial difficulties, resulting in a large number of small and medium export manufacturing enterprises in bankruptcy, decline in export growth, the economy be affected.
the root cause of China's stock market rise is due to institutions over-optimistic about the future economic development, while saving money has been transferred to the stock market results, the same decline is mainly due to the gradual economic development agency pessimistic about the future, and loss of funds in the bear market continue to increase under the influence of the withdrawal from the stock market results, which have little relationship with the QFII. and shortly before the fund for space also impunity, they cause the end of 424, one of the reasons stamp prices, but now the net to buy two or three days, those who support the market has become, QFII has been active in the second quarter, Opening, and in recent days to lighten up just a small amount of together with the hot money has become as empty stock market people, really good at a lot of people seem to find a scapegoat ah stock prices. But no use asking many of the fall or down, not because they seem to have found a a finally saw the Chinese stock market value, if such net inflows will continue for some time, the market may be bottoming only rebound, but I seem to recall that in July there is a net short fund buying, but to the end of July net sellers again. So the net buying by funds to determine the stock market bottomed out, we certainly have a longer period of time to look at the overall situation of net buying, this time to be at least a month.
come from short-term trend see, Tuesday is only a weak rebound in oscillator form, if no other factors, which may rebound on Wednesday finished lower in the end, and to continue to new lows this week,UGG shoes, for the short-term speculators, the rebound is still lighten up opportunities, and for the long-term investors, now is actively select stocks, bargain-hunting time to gradually absorb.
News Comments:
7 月份 China's consumer prices rose 6.3%
7 月份, the consumer price index rose 6.3%. which, the city rose 6.1% in rural areas rose 6.8%; food prices rose 14.4%, non-food prices rose 2.1%; consumer prices rose 7.8%, prices of services rose 1.5%. from on a monthly view, the consumer price index in June rose 0.1%; food prices fell 0.1% in fresh vegetable prices rose 4.3%, egg prices were down 0.8%.
Comment: CPI continued to fall is a good thing, but Do not forget that this is being built on part of the price under controlled conditions, water oil prices were under control, once open, then, CPI growth rate might increase again, while the price controls will be gradually released after the Olympic Games has become the consensus. Once electricity, oil prices, then let go, the future will be back on the CPI growth rate of 7%, while the PPI to increase further,UGGs, it is worth noting.
A shares profit rate below the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai thousand point level The market value is beyond HKEx
after following the August 8, yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 5.21% re-stock index hit a new low this year. At present the weighted average price-earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares has dropped to 19.02 times in 2005 on June 6 when the index fell below the 19.96 thousand times more points than the lower level of the current valuation. U.S. S & P 500 index level of 25.85 times earnings, well above the 300 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares and the level. In addition, the description of the major mature market countries, Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index, the average level of 14.95 times earnings, taking into account the performance of listed companies in 2008 increased, A shares of the level of dynamic price-earnings ratio is also very close with them.
Comments: A stock's price-earnings ratio, it has been in an extremely undervalued, but in a bear market, investors need to consider more of a security, so the ratio is very difficult as the pricing standard, and book value is more investor attention, which is the stock market conditions in the low price-earnings ratio is still the main reason for decline.
collaborative QFII RMB falling short of hot money in China stock market
8 12, stock index lost meteoric rise, the index fell 12.87 points, or 0.52%. from 7 29 days since the main stock index just 11 trading days during the record breaking low, down 15.36% total. who are short? This time, funds, insurance out of the market for some time accused of investors, but it is already common knowledge QFII . compass TOPVIWE data show that from 29 July to 8 August, the Shanghai index dropped 14.91%. But over the same period, the fund relatively stable, Shanghai A shares purchased amounted to 378.1186 million, selling 369.8352 million yuan After the merger, the net amount of 8.2834 billion yuan of funds buying. Guangzhou, a fund company said that the recent fund is indeed stable. However, QFII get together part of the business department has changed the July 29 state of the net buying in July 29 to Aug. 8 sold a net during the day.
Comments: in the stock market continued to fall, many people do not find the reasons for the stock market itself, not the fundamental factors to find a cause, but kept looking for a scapegoat, I do not know the intention what.
exchange rate changes for 10 days the biggest devaluation of lower foreign exchange market
6.8205:1; 6.8351:1 hh6.8659: 1,UGG boots clearance, from July 30 until August 12, the central parity of RMB against U.S. dollar has been falling for 10 consecutive trading days, a rapid appreciation of the situation changed in the first half, a record since July 2005 reform of the RMB exchange rate market since the devaluation of the biggest wave.
comment: the recent dollar strength significantly, on the world's major currencies appears to rise, although the continued depreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar,UGG bailey button, but against other major currencies such as euro, sterling, yen, etc. are still appreciated, as in the past does not mean that the RMB against the U.S. dollar as the global appreciation, and now all of the depreciation of the exchange rate depreciation is not.
Close: Dow down 139 points for the Nasdaq down 9 points
more signs that the continuing crisis in the financial sector, U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, ending two consecutive trading days up momentum. Crude oil futures fell for every $ 113 a barrel. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 139.88 points to close at 11,642.47 points, down 1.19%. In the past two trading days the Dow rose 350 points total. Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 15.72 points, to close at 1289.59 points, down 1.20%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 9.34 points to close at 2430.61 points, down 0.38%.
Comment: U.S. stocks rose after a continuous adjustment to technology stocks, growth stocks led the Nasdaq market trend was stronger than the Dow, that the traditional economy is still subject to inflation, recession, subprime mortgage trouble, that merits our attention.

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